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Romney Actually Leading Based on Today?s ABC/Washington Post PollBattleground Watch ^ | 10.15.12 | Keith Backer
Posted on 10/15/2012 6:09:54 AM PDT by Perdogg
I?m hesitant to do this with every poll but after the below monstrosity from ABC/Washington Post, it was worth the time to rework the poll with a more reasonable election turnout. The largest bone of contention is that the party identification had a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points more Democrats surveyed than Republicans which in shorthand is D +9. This exceeds the best-in-a generation turnout advantage Obama had in 2008 which was 7 percentage points more Democrats or D +7. But what if that absurd disparity in turnout was a more reasonable turnout of D +3 which is also the historic average over the last 7 Presidential elections?
First I will map out the poll as reported by ABC and the Washington Post
The party ID and vote totals according to ABC/Washington Post:
(Excerpt) Read more at battlegroundwatch.com ...
TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
Support Free Republic.
After rounding, it would be 49-47, like Ras and Gallup.
To: Perdogg
Yes, but every decent normal person must get out and vote! That?s what counts!
To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...
3 posted on 10/15/2012 6:11:34 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)To: Perdogg
this poll is absurd and i guess they decided to start pushing these oversampling polls again to give an appearance of O being a winner.
To: Perdogg
Who says the Dems are going to outvote us at all. There are more Repubs then Dems and more enthusiasm. What happens if we plus 9 them?
Pray for America
5 posted on 10/15/2012 6:18:59 AM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
To: snarkytart
What do the media think they?re doing with these polls ......building up Narcissist?s confidence for the Townhall debate tomorrow night?
6 posted on 10/15/2012 6:18:59 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
To: Perdogg
A 5 point differential would be 45.85-44.52. Move to equal turnout and it flips to 47.15-44.24 Romney.
Even a 5 point differential considering that a chunk of that will be in places like NY & Calif. would not mean the Kenyan would win. He can run up vote totals in those states and it won?t help him at all.
7 posted on 10/15/2012 6:25:50 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson
Skip to comments.
Romney Actually Leading Based on Today?s ABC/Washington Post PollBattleground Watch ^ | 10.15.12 | Keith Backer
Posted on 10/15/2012 6:09:54 AM PDT by Perdogg
I?m hesitant to do this with every poll but after the below monstrosity from ABC/Washington Post, it was worth the time to rework the poll with a more reasonable election turnout. The largest bone of contention is that the party identification had a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points more Democrats surveyed than Republicans which in shorthand is D +9. This exceeds the best-in-a generation turnout advantage Obama had in 2008 which was 7 percentage points more Democrats or D +7. But what if that absurd disparity in turnout was a more reasonable turnout of D +3 which is also the historic average over the last 7 Presidential elections?
First I will map out the poll as reported by ABC and the Washington Post
The party ID and vote totals according to ABC/Washington Post:
(Excerpt) Read more at battlegroundwatch.com ...
TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
Support Free Republic.
After rounding, it would be 49-47, like Ras and Gallup.
To: Perdogg
Yes, but every decent normal person must get out and vote! That?s what counts!
To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...
3 posted on 10/15/2012 6:11:34 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)To: Perdogg
this poll is absurd and i guess they decided to start pushing these oversampling polls again to give an appearance of O being a winner.
To: Perdogg
Who says the Dems are going to outvote us at all. There are more Repubs then Dems and more enthusiasm. What happens if we plus 9 them?
Pray for America
5 posted on 10/15/2012 6:18:59 AM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
To: snarkytart
What do the media think they?re doing with these polls ......building up Narcissist?s confidence for the Townhall debate tomorrow night?
6 posted on 10/15/2012 6:18:59 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
To: Perdogg
A 5 point differential would be 45.85-44.52. Move to equal turnout and it flips to 47.15-44.24 Romney.
Even a 5 point differential considering that a chunk of that will be in places like NY & Calif. would not mean the Kenyan would win. He can run up vote totals in those states and it won?t help him at all.
7 posted on 10/15/2012 6:25:50 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson
Source: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2944992/posts
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